US-India Nuclear Deal: More Divergence than Convergence of Interests

US-India Nuclear Deal: More Divergence than Convergence of Interests
By Dr Shakil Akhtar Rai
Los Angeles, CA


The US-India nuclear deal signed between the two countries on March 02 during President Bush’s visit to South Asia has far reaching implications for Asia and bilateral relations between the two signatories. There is limited and short-term convergence of economic and military interests but in the long-term the deal is marked more by divergence of perception and interests than convergence.
The deal represents a major policy shift on the part of the US, and vindicates the long-held Indian position that the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is indeed discriminatory in nature and lacks moral justification. The US has, thus, climbed down on the NPT ladder for future strategic gains as perceived by the right wing hawks in Washington.
The USA has championed nuclear non-proliferation in the last three-and-a-half decades. Now it has reversed its policy and effectively declared that NPT is indeed discriminatory and immoral. The deal has left the legal foundations of NPT shaken, and moral pretensions blown off. The US has set a dangerous precedent for others to follow. It gives other nuclear powers an excuse to sign similar deals. One wonders what would be the American response if some years down the road China or Russia signs a similar arrangement with Iran or Pakistan?
India’s real gain is not access to American nuclear technology; their achievement is moral victory on NPT, virtual acceptance as a nuclear power, and expectation that the new partnership would lead to India’s permanent membership of the UN Security Council.
The Administration in its bid to sell the deal to the Congress is saying that by getting access to 14 of 22 nuclear plants the US has achieved something big in its quest for nuclear non-proliferation. The fact is India retains the right to decide which plants to declare civilian and hence open to international monitoring and which ones to keep away from any inspection for military reasons.
The architects of the deal visualize China and Islamic radicalism as the most serious security threat to the US and expect India to do the their bidding in containing China, and fighting Muslim extremism. They hope the supply of technology for civilian nuclear power plants would dissuade India from pursuing the gas pipeline from Iran to meet its rapidly increasing energy requirements. This would help strengthen the anti-Iran coalition and intensify pressure on Tehran to abandon its uranium enrichment program. According to David Frum the deal would also strengthen India's nuclear-weapons capability, which, will be a step toward punishing the world's two worst nuclear proliferators, China and Pakistan.
The assumption behind this scenario is that Indians would be so grateful to the United States for giving her access to civilian nuclear technology, and conventional weapon systems that they would take-on all the neighbors on behalf of America.
This is Cold War mentality. There is unwarranted obsession with the China threat, and even more unrealistic assumption that India would choose confrontation and not coexistence with neighboring China. The two Asian powers have different areas of interest in the Pacific and Indian Ocean. Their territorial disputes are well managed and are not likely to boil over.
History and geography of the two mature civilizations have taught them better lessons in coexistence than confrontation. The geography dominated by the Himalayas has effectively separated the two and yet provided enough cultural osmosis to learn from each other. Those who do not have the benefit of long history are at a disadvantage in comprehending the range of foresight anchored in the annals of history. If at sometime in distant future the two powers have a conflict of economic or strategic interests in say Central Asia they would take decisions in their own interest and not in the interest of a distant friend or foe. India and China would opt for peace or conflict for their own reasons, not for others pleasure.
The deal is not likely to diminish India’s thirst for oil. At present nuclear power constitutes only three per cent of electricity produced in India. According to experts even with 30 new nuclear plants that India plans to build in the next two decades nuclear power would be only five per cent of its electricity production and barely two per cent of its total energy requirement. Under the circumstances gas pipeline from Iran through Pakistan is an option India can delay but not abandon.
India has sided with the US in the IAEA meetings on the question of Iran’s nuclear program. But it is obvious that this coincidence of interests would go only a short distance. The deal has vindicated the Indian position on NPT and weakened the American stance. How then is India expected to pressurize Iran to not only abide by a discriminatory regime of non-proliferation, but also to abandon what she is allowed to pursue under the NPT, namely, the pursuit of a peaceful nuclear program.
The US-India nuclear deal and the subsequent visit of President Bush to Islamabad have demonstrated that in the new era Pakistan is not visualized as a strategic partner of the US. In the eyes of the US policy makers Pakistan because of her nuclear past, and relationship with militant Islamists, is more of a problem to be watched than a business partner to be trusted. This is a shortsighted view and may prove more problematic than realized at present.
The deal shows lack of understanding of Pakistan’s security interests, its importance in the region, and its future role in maintaining peace and stability. The situation leaves Pakistan little choice but to pursue its nuclear and missile program more vigorously to make up for the disadvantage it has in conventional forces against India. Cold-shouldering Pakistan so soon in the war on terrorism will only strengthen anti-American forces not only in the political field but also within the establishment. This likely scenario is not helpful to the US interests.
- drshakilakhtar@yahoo.com